A March 2007 working paper prepared by the ADB economics and research department projected that the total number of BPO employees could hit 600,000 to 800,000 by 2010, equivalent to seven to 11 percent of the expected new labor entrants during the period.
As of end 2005, the BPO sector employed 163,250 people.
The paper, "An Analysis of the Philippine BPO Industry," authored by ADB economists Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos, Gemma Estrada and Jesus Felipe, was released at the sidelines of an ADB press briefing on its flagship publication Asian Development Outlook 2007.
ADB projection, however, was lower than the joint forecast of the government and the BPO industry at one million workers by 2010.
In 2005, the BPO industry generated total revenue of $2.4 billion, accounting for 2.4 percent of the gross domestic product.
The contact or call center subsector accounted for the bulk, posting earnings of $1.8 billion and employing 112,000 individuals or almost 70 percent of the BPO workers.
"Given improvements in human capital and the right policy environment, the Philippine BPO sector may indeed become an important employment-generating sector in the future," the study said.
To date, the ADB said, the BPO sector has had very little interaction with the rest of the domestic economy, which means that an increase in its output may not necessarily increase production in other sectors.
"Notwithstanding its low intersectoral linkages, the BPO sector has the potential of generating a significant increase in the total wage bill for the economy," the study said.
The biggest challenge is whether the Philippines can continue attracting fresh investments in BPO, given tougher competition from other locations, it said.
"Although the advantages of locating in the Philippines should be emphasized, constraints like low hiring rates, high attrition rates, high cost of electricity and weak governance must be addressed without delay," the study said.
The ADB said another challenge was how to move up the knowledge intensity ladder. It noted that while this is desired by the government and the industry, there is no specific strategy so far laid out to achieve this goal.
The third challenge is whether the sector would continue to require government support.
"If the government is seriously bent on moving toward knowledge process outsourcing (KPO), it is then important to identify strategies to entice more investors that are involved in KPO, as well as to encourage BPO firms to move into higher value-added activities," the study said.
Since the existence of a pool of educated workers with tertiary education is seen as a key to the development of the sector, the ADB study said the following two questions must be answered:
• Is it the right policy for a country like the Philippines to continue investing in tertiary education to satisfy the needs of the BPO sector?
• Are students who take degrees in disciplines such as engineering, statistics, economics, etc. to be blamed for their lack of appropriate skills to be employed in the BPO sector?
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